Rent prices across the country increased fast in 2022. In December 2022, the national median rent price rose 4.77 percent year-over-year. Prices rose from a national median of $1,889 in 2021 to $1,978 in 2022.
Rent spikes in high-priced cities and the most expensive metro areas made headlines. But even the most affordable metros in the U.S. weren’t immune. Six out of the top 10 most affordable metros in the country saw rents rising faster than the national median. And while each is still a relative bargain, the lower rents may not last for long.
Metros where rent is rising faster than the national median
These six major metropolitan areas are all located in the Midwest and the South, where rents tend to be more affordable. All of the top 10 most affordable metros are located in these regions.
A Rent. analysis of post-pandemic migration trends revealed one reason why rents are rising faster for some metros — positive migration interest. Most renters wanted to stay within their existing city and metro, even if that meant moving over state lines, according to the analysis. If that were not feasible, a significant portion of renters were willing to relocate to a completely different geographical area. Half of the cities where rent is rising faster than the national median saw positive migration interest during the third quarter (Q3) of 2022.
Migration interest is recorded as a lead delta — a positive lead delta means that more people indicated that they were interested in moving to these metropolitan areas, rather than moving away. Metros with positive lead deltas include Indianapolis, Kansas City and Louisville.
Columbus, St. Louis and San Antonio recorded negative lead deltas, meaning more renters wanted to move away. Columbus recorded a substantial negative lead delta of -26.04 — the strongest outmigration number of any of the cities on this list.
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN CBSA
Indiana’s largest metro area saw the largest year-over-year rent increase in the Top 10. Indianapolis–Carmel–Anderson rents shot up a whopping 16.3 percent in 2022, a big jump compared to the 4.77 percent national median increase.
Soaring rent prices were spurred by low housing inventory, inflation, strong inbound migration interest and relatively low prices. Renters here paid a median price of $1,282 per month in December 2021. By December 2022, the median rent price soared to $1,492.
Longtime residents certainly felt the pinch. But to people from more expensive metros, paying $488 less than the national median price seemed like a bargain.
There are signs that rents may be stabilizing. Rent prices inched up just 0.36 percent from November to December 2022.
Kansas City, MO-KS CBSA
The Kansas City metro saw rent prices climb 9.40 percent year-over-year. That’s nearly double the national rent price increase nationwide. Month-over-month rent increases were more modest, rising three percent between November and December 2022.
This metro contains both Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas City, Kansas, so it’s no surprise that renters from around the region want to move here. Strong growth in the community’s medical and logistics industries kept demand for rental homes high, while a limited supply of affordable homes pushed both rents and housing prices ever higher.
These forces nudged median rent prices from $1,392 in December 2021 to $1,523 a year later. Matthew Nevinger of Cushman and Wakefield told public radio station KCUR 89.3 that rent increases are outpacing wage growth of 4.8 percent.
Columbus, OH CBSA
The month-over-month rent increase in Columbus was negligible. Rents ticked up just 0.6 percent between November and December 2022. That’s the smallest monthly increase in any of the six U.S. cities where rents are rising faster than the national median.
Renters probably appreciated the price break. Rent prices in Ohio’s largest metropolitan area are the most expensive in the top 10 at a median of $1,566 per month.
That’s more affordable than the national median rent price of $1,979. But prices are still up 7.70 percent since December 2021, when renters paid a monthly median of $1,454.
St. Louis, MO-IL CBSA
The cost of rent increased significantly in the St. Louis metro last year, too. December’s median rent price of $1,554 was 7.40 percent higher than the $1,447 median rate recorded in December 2021. The month-over-month increase in December 2022 was more modest at just 1.5 percent.
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN CBSA
This metropolitan area spills across state lines and includes both Louisville, Kentucky and Jefferson County, Indiana. The median rent price here increased 5.90 percent year-over-year and 3.70 percent month-over-month.
Rents rose from $1,264 in December 2021 to $1,339 in December 2022. But rental homes are more affordable here than in any other metro in this category.
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX CBSA
Rent prices in San Antonio and New Braunfels rose from $1,385 in December 2021 to $1,456 in December 2022. That’s a 5.1 percent increase, the lowest in this category. The median rental price rose 3.90 percent between November and December 2022.
Rent trends in the remaining top 10 affordable metros
The remaining four most affordable metros in the country are located in the Midwest and the South. They include Cincinnati, Ohio, where prices rose 2.7 percent year over year and Memphis, Tennessee, home to a 1.5 percent annual rent hike.
Meanwhile, year-over-year rent prices actually dropped in Birmingham–Hoover, Alabama and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Rents decreased 1.7 percent in the Birmingham-Hoover metro and 6.3 percent in Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City’s downward pricing trend may be at least partially due to timing. In 2022, the metro saw some of the steepest rent increases in the nation. Rents spiked 19.7 percent between November and December 2021 alone, leaving this December’s numbers with plenty of room to fall.
The median rental price in Memphis, Cincinnati and Birmingham-Hoover hovered just over $1,500 a month. That’s a bargain compared to many U.S. metropolitan areas.
Rent in Oklahoma City is a steal at just $1,173 a month, the most affordable price in this survey. Renters here pay a median price $165 less than the next metro on this list, the largest savings in the top 10.
All four cities showed strong inbound migration interest from renters. Memphis led the pack with a 24.71 lead delta — the highest inbound migration number in the top 10 most affordable metros.
But despite renters showing interest in moving to these four communities (and despite rent prices rising in all but one of them), month-over-month rent prices held steady (0.01) in Birmingham. And rents actually dropped in Oklahoma City (-4.9 percent), Memphis (-3.2 percent) and Cincinnati (-2.2 percent) between November and December 2022.
The takeaway
These are markets to watch. They’re still affordable for renters right now. But since rent prices in six of the top 10 most affordable metros in the U.S. are rising faster than the national median rent price, these communities may not remain bargains for long.
Methodology
We analyzed rental property prices in December 2022, the last full month of data, from Rent.’s available inventory to identify our median rent prices at the national, state and metro levels. Our analysis combines inventory and bedroom types into one simple median that covers all available rental units at the time.
The top 50 metropolitan areas in our analysis are determined by U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for 2021.
More detailed information about our methodology can be found here.
The rent information included in this article is used for illustrative purposes only. The data contained herein do not constitute financial advice or a pricing guarantee for any apartment. The information contained in this article is for educational purposes only and does not, and is not intended to, constitute legal or financial advice. Readers are encouraged to seek professional legal or financial advice as they may deem it necessary.
