Americans are on the move. From same-city moves to cross-country moves, more than 27 million Americans move each year. Rent. wanted to know which metro areas had the highest rate of outbound migration. In other words, where are people becoming less interested in moving?
Researchers looked at the number of outbound leads from January, February and March 2022 to find the metro areas with a negative lead delta, indicating a decrease in popularity. From there, we put together a list of the top 10 metro areas with the most outbound leads relative to inbound leads in the first quarter.
Top 10 metro areas with the highest outbound migration
People move to and fro all the time. But these 10 metro areas stand out because they’re potentially losing residents faster than most other areas in the country. Here’s an overview of how many people have signaled an intent to leave and where they’re going.
10. Baltimore, MD
- Number of leads out: 97,030
- Lead delta: -15.98%
Baltimore is among the top 10 metro areas with the highest proportion of outbound leads relative to inbound leads. Based on Rent. data, Baltimore residents have an interest in moving to states like Georgia, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York. While people are leaving the metro area, they’re staying on the East coast.
Baltimore renters are paying an average of $1,359 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1,547 for a two-bedroom apartment. Interestingly, if you compare rent to the Atlanta area — a metro where people from Baltimore are migrating to — rent is actually more expensive in this metro at $1,964 and $2,520 for a one and two-bedroom apartment, respectively.
9. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
- Number of leads out: 214,329
- Lead delta: -17.84%
Dallas-Fort Worth residents are expressing interest in moving from this metro area to other areas within Texas, including Amarillo, Houston and Waco. While migration trends indicate people are leaving Dallas, they seem to want to stay in the Lone Star state in general.
Rent prices have increased by 30 percent in Texas year-over-year. However, rent is more expensive in Dallas compared to other metros. Dallas rent averages $1,544 for a one-bedroom apartment, whereas rent in Amarillo is $949, rent in Houston is $1,315 and rent in Waco is $1,265.
8. Chicago, IL
- Number of leads out: 260,887
- Lead delta: -18.35%
Chicago residents seem more inclined to move to neighboring metro areas or nearby states. Based on outbound lead data, we’re seeing interest in Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio. It appears that the Great Lakes area appeals to Chicago residents, they’re just interested in leaving the metro itself.
The average rent in Illinois is $1,442, while the average rent in Chicago is $2,403.
7. San Fransisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA
- Number of leads out: 95,565
- Lead delta: -20.89%
While there are more people moving out of San Jose than into San Jose, people want to stay in California. For those interested in leaving the San Jose metro area, data shows they’re interested in moving to places like Fresno, Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and Monterrey.
Rent in San Jose is notoriously expensive at an average of $3,372 per month for a two-bedroom apartment.
6. Austin, TX
- Number of leads out: 48,844
- Lead delta: -24.17%
Austin is another Texas city seeing a great exodus of people. Austin renters are looking at states like New Mexico, Arizona and Southern California. There’s interest in other Texas metro areas, too. Dallas, Amarillo and Corpus Christi are hot spots for Austin residents looking to move elsewhere.
Austin saw a 12 percent increase in one-bedroom rent prices year-over-year, so this could influence renters’ decision to leave the metro area. Austin renters pay $1,542 for a one-bedroom apartment. Renters in Corpus Christi pay an average of $890 for an apartment of the same size.
5. Atlanta, GA
- Number of leads out: 284,901
- Lead delta: -24.39%
Atlanta ranks in the middle of this list. Interestingly, people are leaving the state of Georgia, entirely. There’s increased interest in states like Tennessee, Alabama, Florida and the Carolinas.
Rent prices actually decreased in Atlanta by 6.8 percent, however, rent in Georgia is still at an average of $1,431 per month. Atlanta residents pay an average of $1,965 for a one-bedroom and $2,520 for a two-bedroom, which is $500-$900 more expensive than the state average.
4. St. Louis, MO
- Number of leads out: 48,274
- Lead delta: -25.03%
St. Louis is another mid-West city experiencing an increase in outbound leads. With close to 50,000 people expressing interest in leaving the metro area. Our data shows that St. Louis residents are all over the map with interest in states from Texas and Kansas to New York on the East coast.
Data shows that St. Louis renters pay an average of $1,175 and $1,407 for one and two-bedroom apartments.
3. Columbus, OH
- Number of leads out: 90,877
- Lead delta: -25.26%
Ranking in position three for the most outbound leads is Columbus. Ohio is still a popular state as data shows renters’ interest in other metros like Dayton or Cincinnati.
Ohio is a rare state with rent averages of less than $1,000. The average rent for a one-bedroom in the state is right at $999 and up from $742 the year before. However, rent in Columbus is $1,270 for a one-bedroom, which is a few hundred dollars more than the state average. People will pay less for rent in Dayton at $962, so it makes sense that rent prices in Columbus is a leading factor for people migrating out.
2. Denver, CO
- Number of leads out: 94,750
- Lead delta: -25.56%
Denver renters are exploding all over the map. People are expressing interest in states from California to New York. While some Denver renters are staying in Colorado, data shows that the majority of people submitting outbound leads are leaving the state.
Denver rent averages $2,193 per month and is among the states that rank highest for rent increases.
1. Charlotte, NC
- Number of leads out: 143.383
- Lead delta: -29.34%
Charlotte is the No. 1 metro. People interested in leaving Charlotte are considering metro areas in South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia and Louisiana. Rent in Charlotte averages $1,518 so residents may find less expensive rent in neighboring southern states.
Interesting findings and correlations
As we looked at all of the data, there were a few things that stood out:
- With the exception of the Denver metro area, it appears that people want to leave their metro area but not the state or region. Outbound leads were looking at other metros in the state or very close by.
- Rent prices were more expensive in large metro areas compared to other metro areas that outbound leads indicated interest for. Rent prices are a possible determining factor in why people are leaving the metro, but not the state.
- The metro areas with the most outbound leads were all over the map, from the Midwest to the South to the West Coast.
Methodology
Information on migration patterns and preferences was pulled from anonymized user data collected by Rent.’s internet listings services. For each lead submitted by a user, a record is created establishing the location of the user based on an IP address and user-selected security settings. These records are combined with information, including geographical information, about the listing of interest creating an origin-destination pair. Outbound migration consists of a renter-to-listing pair. Inbound migration consists of a listing-to-renter pair. Where geographic information for either the renter or the listing was missing, the record was removed from this study. Aggregations were made based on renter location for outbound migration and on listing location for inbound location. Differences were calculated based on these aggregations. Only states with at least 10,000 inbound leads and only metros with at least 5,000 inbound leads were considered in this analysis.
Information included in this article is for illustrative purposes only. The data contained herein do not constitute financial advice or a pricing guarantee.
