With rent prices cooling across the country for the first time in months, Americans’ curiosity about relocating continues to grow as they deal with financial stress from inflation. In this environment, Rent. wanted to know which metro areas had the highest rates of outbound migration, or where are people moving from.
Rent.’s recent report on migration showed renters at the regional level continue to migrate from the Northeast and West to the South and Midwest. But digging deeper reveals more nuance, as only one metro in this outbound Top 5 is in the Northeast, while two are are in the Midwest and two more in the South, an indication of the diversity of these markets and an evolving rental landscape.
Determining the metros with the strong inbound migration
To determine the most popular migration destinations, Rent. researchers mined the site’s user data to gauge interest in listings by geographic location. Results were gathered during the third quarter (Q3) of 2022, in the months of July, August and September.
The survey measures a “lead delta,” which is the difference between the number of inbound leads and outbound leads within a particular metropolitan as a proportion of all leads within the same area. A “lead” is a rental industry terms referring to a prospective renter who submits information to a property management group, owner or landlord signaling they’re interested in a rental property.
Metropolitan areas with more inbound than outbound leads have a positive lead delta. The larger the lead delta, the higher the interest. A negative lead delta means there are more outbound than inbound searches in a particular metro, which indicates a decrease in popularity. A lead delta of zero would mean a metro saw the same number of inbound and outbound leads during this survey period.
Top 10 metro areas with the highest outbound migration
Here’s an overview of the metros with the highest proportion of renters who have signaled an intent to leave and where they’re going. These 10 metro areas stand out because they’re potentially losing residents faster than most other areas in the country.
1. Chicago, IL
The Chicago metro area takes the number one spot for the highest outbound migration this quarter. The Midwest continues to attract interest as a region, but Chicago had the highest number of outbound leads at -46 percent lead delta, almost 10 percent higher than last quarter.
About 23 percent of Chicago residents are interested in staying in the metro area. Those looking out of state were interested in the Midwest and the South of the country. Dallas-Ft. Worth, Nashville, Milwaukee and Minneapolis–St. Paul had the highest interest from those in the Windy City.
The Chicago metro area experienced a small decrease of 0.95 percent month-over-month in October, with a median rent price of $2,460 per month across all units.
2. Traverse City-Cadillac, MI
In Michigan, Traverse City–Cadillac took the number two spot for highest outbound migration with a -43.3 percent lead delta. However, only 15.5 percent of residents are looking stay locally in Traverse City or Grand Rapids–Kalamazoo–Battle Creek.
Outbound leads focused in the East coast — New York, Philadelphia, Detroit and Atlanta — showing that Traverse City residents are opening their minds to bigger metros.
In the Traverse City metro area, despite seeing some increases in rent prices, shows that all unit types remain under $1,000 per month.
3. Atlanta, GA
Atlanta makes it into the top 5 for the second consecutive quarter with a -30.9 percent lead delta, up from Q2. Most of the outbound leads in the state of Georgia came from Atlanta as well, doubling quarter over quarter from -9.6 percent to -17.14 percent.
The Atlanta metro area saw a decrease of 4.45 percent in month-over-month rents in October, with a median rate of $1,991 per month across all units.
The rental market is stabilizing with a decrease of 2.25 percent year over year. According to Redfin, the housing market is cooling too, with new listing down 26.5 percent year over year.
Currently, 28.2 percent of locals are shifting within the metro area itself and exploring nearby Macon, Augusta and Savannah as options. If going out of state, Florida and New York lead the charge.
4. New York, NY
The New York metropolitan area has seen increased outbound migration this quarter, with a -44 percent Q3 lead delta, higher than Q2. It’s relevant also to mention that the state of New York as a whole also saw the highest outmigration numbers in 2022.
New house listings, according to Redfin, have slowed down 25 percent year over year — signaling a cooling trend in the rental market locally and supported with a 2.6 percent month-over-month decline in the median rent price.
Rent prices have seen a year-over-year increase of 9.6 percent, with the median rent at $4,068 per month.
Based on Rent. data, New York residents have their eye on Philadelphia, and Hartford–New Haven in Connecticut. Other metro areas with growing interest are Boston–Manchester, NH, Cleveland–Akron (Canton), OH and Atlanta, GA.
5. Charlotte, NC
The Charlotte metro area saw a lead delta of -26.23 percent this quarter, taking the fifth spot on our list. This slightly decreased from Q1 earlier this year, when Charlotte took the top spot.
Residents of the Charlotte metro area currently pay $1,920 per month, a slight increase month over month. Those interested in leaving the city have their eye set on the Southeast, but the top three destinations are still within the state. The metro areas of Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem and Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville) sparked interest, besides Charlotte itself.
If crossing state lines, Charlotte residents were interested in cities in South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia and Louisiana.
Outbound leads are not straying far from home
The bottom top 10 metros with the highest outbound migration are spread throughout the country. St. Louis, saw an increase in outbound leads, with leads focusing in on Springfield, MO, and within the St. Louis metro. Others leads went as far as New York. Currently, St. Louis renters pay a median rent of $1,584 per month across all units.
In Denver, the majority of the interest remains in the Denver metro area, with 32 percent of leads remaining there. Followed by leads in Colorado Springs and neighboring states such as Utah, Missouri and Michigan.
The Denver metro area saw a decrease in month-to-month rents in October of 0.73 percent, with a median rent of $2,732. All neighboring states with the highest outbound leads offer rents of at least $1,000 less per month.
Similar trends are seen in Lexington, KY, Baltimore and Los Angeles. Most outbound leads were not outside the metro area; if it was, it was for nearby cities or bordering states within the same region.
Finding relief in smaller metros
Renters seemed to be looking for relief from inflation and heading to smaller metros. Some renters don’t want to leave the state, like those in Charlotte looking in nearby metro areas, while others are willing to move to bordering states.
As the housing and rental market cool off headed into the winter season and the new year, prospective residents may stay near familiar places if they decide to move at all.
| Metro | Leads Out | Leads In | Difference | Lead Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago IL | 211,986 | 78,399 | -133,587 | -46.00% |
| Traverse City-Cadillac MI | 5,035 | 1,991 | -3,044 | -43.32% |
| Washington DC (Hagerstown MD) | 108,497 | 48,404 | -60,093 | -38.30% |
| Atlanta GA | 146,996 | 77,581 | -69,415 | -30.91% |
| New York, NY | 383,185 | 222,699 | -160,486 | -26.49% |
| Charlotte NC | 56,142 | 32,809 | -23,333 | -26.23% |
| St. Louis MO | 16,362 | 9,602 | -6,760 | -26.04% |
| Denver CO | 45,147 | 27,820 | -17,327 | -23.75% |
| Lexington KY | 7,470 | 5,220 | -2,250 | -17.73% |
| Baltimore MD | 51,656 | 36,283 | -15,373 | -17.48% |
| Los Angeles CA | 171,834 | 127,349 | -44,485 | -14.87% |
| Wilkes Barre-Scranton PA | 7,266 | 5,459 | -1,807 | -14.20% |
| San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose CA | 45,680 | 35,396 | -10,284 | -12.68% |
| Dallas-Ft. Worth TX | 107,222 | 83,983 | -23,239 | -12.15% |
| Phoenix AZ | 57,166 | 45,158 | -12,008 | -11.74% |
| Seattle-Tacoma WA | 51,387 | 41,331 | -10,056 | -10.85% |
| Austin TX | 20,406 | 18,100 | -2,306 | -5.99% |
| Portland-Auburn ME | 7,297 | 6,565 | -732 | -5.28% |
| Columbus OH | 34,978 | 31,928 | -3,050 | -4.56% |
| Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne FL | 46,444 | 42,521 | -3,923 | -4.41% |
| San Antonio TX | 22,825 | 21,288 | -1,537 | -3.48% |
| Syracuse NY | 11,004 | 10,413 | -591 | -2.76% |
| Boston MA-Manchester NH | 72,016 | 68,703 | -3,313 | -2.35% |
| Spokane WA | 8,222 | 7,917 | -305 | -1.89% |
| Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville) NC | 34,189 | 33,670 | -519 | -0.76% |
| Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto CA | 28,940 | 28,866 | -74 | -0.13% |
| Nashville TN | 40,396 | 40,712 | 316 | 0.39% |
| Miami-Ft. Lauderdale FL | 53,356 | 54,693 | 1,337 | 1.24% |
| Philadelphia PA | 118,573 | 122,265 | 3,692 | 1.53% |
| Las Vegas NV | 18,491 | 19,254 | 763 | 2.02% |
| Lincoln & Hastings-Kearney NE | 5,764 | 6,034 | 270 | 2.29% |
| Jacksonville FL | 16,952 | 18,050 | 1,098 | 3.14% |
| Ft. Wayne IN | 5,686 | 6,258 | 572 | 4.79% |
| Louisville KY | 19,269 | 21,557 | 2,288 | 5.60% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul MN | 43,473 | 48,840 | 5,367 | 5.81% |
| Kansas City MO | 20,762 | 23,651 | 2,889 | 6.50% |
| Houston TX | 45,408 | 52,310 | 6,902 | 7.06% |
| Detroit MI | 61,973 | 71,544 | 9,571 | 7.17% |
| Birmingham (Ann and Tusc) AL | 20,559 | 23,879 | 3,320 | 7.47% |
| Omaha NE | 11,627 | 13,605 | 1,978 | 7.84% |
| Little Rock-Pine Bluff AR | 9,067 | 10,663 | 1,596 | 8.09% |
| Mobile AL-Pensacola (Ft. Walton Beach) FL | 16,777 | 19,795 | 3,018 | 8.25% |
| Jackson MS | 6,170 | 7,326 | 1,156 | 8.57% |
| Wichita-Hutchinson KS | 7,329 | 8,802 | 1,473 | 9.13% |
| Portland OR | 19,533 | 23,572 | 4,039 | 9.37% |
| Indianapolis IN | 45,933 | 57,948 | 12,015 | 11.57% |
| Tulsa OK | 8,490 | 10,887 | 2,397 | 12.37% |
| Oklahoma City OK | 15,517 | 20,039 | 4,522 | 12.72% |
| Flint-Saginaw-Bay City MI | 9,184 | 11,891 | 2,707 | 12.84% |
| Greenville-New Bern-Washington NC | 5,533 | 7,169 | 1,636 | 12.88% |
| Bakersfield CA | 6,061 | 7,933 | 1,872 | 13.38% |
| Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville-Anderson | 11,937 | 15,728 | 3,791 | 13.70% |
| New Orleans LA | 15,282 | 20,169 | 4,887 | 13.79% |
| Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-Battle Creek MI | 15,359 | 20,373 | 5,014 | 14.03% |
| Tallahassee FL-Thomasville GA | 8,470 | 11,425 | 2,955 | 14.85% |
| West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce FL | 7,958 | 10,747 | 2,789 | 14.91% |
| Milwaukee WI | 22,217 | 30,032 | 7,815 | 14.96% |
| Albuquerque-Santa Fe NM | 10,904 | 14,805 | 3,901 | 15.17% |
| Richmond-Petersburg VA | 13,186 | 17,929 | 4,743 | 15.24% |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) FL | 34,923 | 48,116 | 13,193 | 15.89% |
| Cleveland-Akron (Canton) OH | 47,053 | 65,460 | 18,407 | 16.36% |
| Cincinnati OH | 28,637 | 41,713 | 13,076 | 18.59% |
| Hartford & New Haven CT | 29,891 | 43,705 | 13,814 | 18.77% |
| Ft. Myers-Naples FL | 6,457 | 9,474 | 3,017 | 18.94% |
| Salt Lake City UT | 19,406 | 28,619 | 9,213 | 19.18% |
| San Diego CA | 21,568 | 31,819 | 10,251 | 19.20% |
| Fresno-Visalia CA | 10,859 | 16,758 | 5,899 | 21.36% |
| Buffalo NY | 11,655 | 18,450 | 6,795 | 22.57% |
| Rochester NY | 11,054 | 17,645 | 6,591 | 22.97% |
| Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY | 11,204 | 18,223 | 7,019 | 23.85% |
| Reno NV | 6,841 | 11,267 | 4,426 | 24.44% |
| Memphis TN | 14,794 | 24,507 | 9,713 | 24.71% |
| Pittsburgh PA | 19,772 | 33,655 | 13,883 | 25.98% |
| Chattanooga TN | 6,257 | 10,672 | 4,415 | 26.08% |
| Savannah GA | 10,637 | 19,040 | 8,403 | 28.31% |
| El Paso TX | 5,171 | 9,457 | 4,286 | 29.30% |
| Roanoke-Lynchburg VA | 11,433 | 21,138 | 9,705 | 29.80% |
| Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News VA | 24,537 | 45,513 | 20,976 | 29.94% |
| South Bend-Elkhart IN | 8,592 | 16,569 | 7,977 | 31.70% |
| Providence-New Bedford,MA | 7,172 | 13,895 | 6,723 | 31.91% |
| Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem NC | 13,903 | 27,069 | 13,166 | 32.13% |
| Charleston SC | 8,675 | 17,242 | 8,567 | 33.06% |
| Des Moines-Ames IA | 5,560 | 11,056 | 5,496 | 33.08% |
| Evansville IN | 5,079 | 10,329 | 5,250 | 34.07% |
| Columbia SC | 10,204 | 20,792 | 10,588 | 34.16% |
| Green Bay-Appleton WI | 5,699 | 11,743 | 6,044 | 34.65% |
| Columbus GA | 6,103 | 12,606 | 6,503 | 34.76% |
| Dayton OH | 11,625 | 24,305 | 12,680 | 35.29% |
| Fargo-Valley City ND | 9,081 | 19,870 | 10,789 | 37.27% |
| Tri-Cities TN-VA | 8,919 | 19,672 | 10,753 | 37.61% |
| Knoxville TN | 14,951 | 33,401 | 18,450 | 38.16% |
| Augusta GA | 6,876 | 15,560 | 8,684 | 38.71% |
| Springfield-Holyoke MA | 5,402 | 12,398 | 6,996 | 39.30% |
| Macon GA | 7,102 | 16,449 | 9,347 | 39.69% |
| Toledo OH | 8,394 | 19,776 | 11,382 | 40.40% |
| Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York PA | 13,882 | 32,947 | 19,065 | 40.71% |
| Springfield MO | 8,908 | 21,226 | 12,318 | 40.88% |
| Waco-Temple-Bryan TX | 5,882 | 14,244 | 8,362 | 41.55% |
| Madison WI | 7,178 | 17,709 | 10,531 | 42.32% |
| Huntsville-Decatur (Florence) AL | 5,626 | 16,184 | 10,558 | 48.41% |
| Biloxi-Gulfport MS | 5,359 | 16,583 | 11,224 | 51.15% |
Methodology
Information on migration patterns and preferences was pulled from anonymized user data collected by Rent.’s internet listings services. For each lead submitted by a user, a record is created establishing the location of the user based on their IP address and user-selected security settings. These records are combined with information, including geographical information, about the listing of interest creating an origin-destination pair.
Outbound migration consists of a renter-to-listing pair. Inbound migration consists of a listing-to-renter pair. Where geographic information for either the renter or the listing was missing, the record was removed from this study. Aggregations were made based on renter location for outbound migration and on listing location for inbound location. Differences were calculated based on these aggregations. Only states with at least 10,000 inbound leads and only metros with at least 5,000 inbound leads were considered in this analysis.
Regional designations are based on U.S. Census regional designations which divides the nation into four geographic regions: Northeast (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont); Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin); South (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, District of Columbia and West Virginia) and West (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Hawaii, Utah, Washington and Wyoming)
Information included in this article is for illustrative purposes only. The data contained herein do not constitute financial advice or a pricing guarantee.
